The prices are based on a simple model in which the prices drift 1% per day towards the ratio of the amounts of time needed to produce ech token by mining. After each halving, the ratio changes, and the cheapest token increases in price in comparison to the others as the prices drift towards their new target ratio.
Are the relative prices of the tokens in real life guaranteed to follow the pattern shown in the simulator?
There is no guarantee, but this is what the token prices were designed to do, and the results from the Spring halving indicate that the prices are behaving as expected. The market may react more quickly or slowly to future halvings, and as time goes on, we intend to update the price model in the simulator to more accurately reflect the real price history.
There are several unrealistic features of the first version of the simulator. Trades don't have any impact on the market price, and the average price of the four tokens is kept fixed at 1 cent per token for the ten-year period.
In practice, investors who trade large amounts will have an impact on the price and will make smaller profits than investors who trade in small amounts. On the other hand, the increasing scarcity of the tokens will put upward pressure on their prices, making it plausible that the profit achieved by holding and trading them will exceed the estimate based on the fixed price of 1 cent.
The average price is kept at 1 cent so that users can see the component of their profit that comes from trading tokens for more tokens. This is the active trading, or alpha, component of the investment's performance. In practice, there will also be a passive, or beta, component, reflecting the market performance of the tokens over the course of the ten years.
Yes. Over the coming months, we plan to introduce new features in Advanced Mode, including a high score table, price impacts, partial trades, and multiplayer mode.
Please send any suggestions to sim